PlanPath Explorer (beta)
Availability
The Document Vault is currently in beta and available to PlannerPlus members opted into Boldin's beta program. To enable beta features, go to your Profile (top right) → Account settings → Beta and toggle it on.
Technical details
This article is for readers who want to see under the hood — the exact allocations, rates, and methodology behind each strategy. You don't need any of it to use the Explorer.
The strategy matrix
PlanPath is built on 25 model portfolios: five risk levels crossed with the five life stages above. Each portfolio holds three building blocks — equity, fixed income, and cash equivalents. Equity drives the differences:
Equity share, by strategy and life stage
Life stage | Conserv | Mod. Conserv | Moderate | Mod. Aggressive | Aggressive |
Accumulation | 70% | 75% | 80% | 85% | 90% |
Build | 65% | 70% | 75% | 80% | 85% |
Transition | 60% | 65% | 70% | 75% | 80% |
Retirement zone | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% |
Distribution | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% |
The remainder is split between fixed income and cash. Cash grows from a 1% sliver in Accumulation to as much as 8–16% in Distribution (more for conservative strategies), where it doubles as a spending reserve — a cushion for down markets so a plan isn't modeled selling investments at a loss. Within fixed income, the share of inflation-protected bonds (TIPS) steps up from 10% of the fixed income sleeve in Accumulation to 30% in Distribution, adding inflation protection as spending from savings begins.
The rates of return behind each strategy
Each combination of strategy and life stage has its own expected return and volatility — these are the numbers the Explorer's projections use.
Expected return is a forward-looking annual average — an estimate of what a portfolio like this may earn per year, on average, over the long run. It is not a prediction for any single year.
Volatility describes the typical size of year-to-year swings around that average. In roughly two out of three years, a portfolio's return lands within one volatility measure above or below its expected return; some years fall outside that range entirely.
Expected annual return, by strategy and life stage
Life stage | Conserv | Mod. Conserv | Moderate | Mod. Aggressive | Aggressive |
Accumulation | 6.51% | 6.69% | 6.87% | 7.05% | 7.23% |
Build | 6.31% | 6.50% | 6.68% | 6.86% | 7.05% |
Transition | 6.12% | 6.31% | 6.49% | 6.67% | 6.86% |
Retirement Zone | 5.00% | 5.37% | 5.74% | 6.11% | 6.48% |
Distribution | 4.98% | 5.36% | 5.73% | 6.10% | 6.48% |
Volatility (typical annual swing), by strategy and life stage
Life stage | Conserv | Mod. Conserv | Moderate | Mod. Aggressive | Aggressive |
Accumulation | 11.29% | 11.90% | 12.52% | 13.14% | 13.77% |
Build | 10.61% | 11.22% | 11.84% | 12.46% | 13.09% |
Transition | 9.92% | 10.53% | 11.15% | 11.77% | 12.40% |
Retirement Zone | 6.27% | 7.40% | 8.60% | 9.84% | 11.11% |
Distribution | 6.02% | 7.21% | 8.46% | 9.74% | 11.04% |
Reading the two tables together tells the PlanPath story: as you move down the rows toward retirement, expected returns give up a little — and volatility gives up a lot. A Moderate portfolio in the Retirement Zone earns about 1.2 percentage points less per year than in Accumulation, but its typical swings shrink by nearly a third. That trade — modest return for major stability, timed to the years a downturn hurts most — is what the strategic adjustments are for.
How these compare to Boldin's current model portfolios
If you've used Boldin's existing model portfolios to set your rates of return, PlanPath's numbers will look familiar in shape but lower in level — and it's worth understanding both differences, because they're deliberate.
Risk profile | Current model portfolio Stock / Bond ratio | PlanPath expected return (shifts by life stage) |
Aggressive | 90/10 · 10.25% | 7.23% early career → 6.48% in retirement |
Moderately Aggressive | 70/30 · 8.80% | 7.05% → 6.10% |
Moderate | 60/40 · 8.08% | 6.87% → 5.73% |
Moderately Conservative | 40/60 · 6.64% | 6.69% → 5.36% |
Conservative | 30/70 · 5.92% | 6.51% → 4.98% |
Difference one: where the numbers come from. The current model portfolio rates are built from 30 years of market history — from 1994 through 2024, US stocks returned about 11% per year and 10-year Treasuries about 3.75%, and each model's rate is a blend of the two. PlanPath's rates are forward-looking: estimates of what markets may return from here, published by major asset managers and reflecting today's valuations and yields. History describes an era that included an exceptional run for US stocks; forward-looking estimates describe the starting point your plan actually faces. Neither is "wrong" — but a plan built on the more sober number has more room to be pleasantly surprised.
Difference two: static versus shifting. A current model portfolio holds one allocation and one rate for your entire plan (unless you set a one-time future change) — an Aggressive election is 90% stocks at 30 and still 90% stocks at 80. A PlanPath adjusts automatically: the same Aggressive profile holds 90% equity in early career and steps down to 70% through retirement, with returns and volatility shifting to match. That's why each PlanPath shows a range rather than a single number.
One more thing the table shows: the comparison doesn't cut one way. Aggressive profiles see meaningfully lower expected returns under PlanPath — that's the honest cost of not counting on history repeating. But a Conservative saver early in their career sees a higher expected return under PlanPath (6.5% vs. 5.92%), because the life-stage design lets them hold more growth when time is on their side.
How the portfolios are built
Each model portfolio is constructed from eight low-cost Vanguard ETFs across the three sleeves. The equity sleeve is 70% US and 30% international, with the US portion balanced across growth, value, and small-cap funds. The fixed income sleeve blends a total bond market fund with short-term TIPS. The cash sleeve uses an ultra-short bond fund.
Where the numbers come from
Expected returns are forward-looking capital market assumptions — estimates of long-run future returns published by major asset managers. Boldin's figures use BlackRock's assumptions as the primary basis, cross-checked against J.P. Morgan and Vanguard so no single firm's outlook drives the model. Volatility is measured from 10 years of actual monthly market history (through May 2026), computed from the full relationships among the eight holdings — how they move together, not just how much each moves on its own. A 20-year window that includes the 2008 financial crisis is used as a cross-check. The framework has been back-tested from October 2012 through April 2026.
The full methodology — construction rules, data sources, assumption comparisons across vendors, and back-test results — is documented in the PlanPath whitepaper.
What the Explorer forecasts — and what it doesn't
The Explorer forecasts each strategy's expected returns, volatility, and the automatic allocation shift across your plan horizon, and compares the results to your current plan.
Explorer projections run on average expected returns for each model portfolio.
It does not recommend investments, change your plan, rebalance accounts, or execute anything.
All projections are educational estimates, not guarantees of future results.
Questions we didn't answer here? Ask Boldin AI in the planner, or reach out to support — we're happy to go deeper.