While the Accounts section of the Boldin Planner does not directly account for negative returns, the Retirement Chance of Success feature does. This is because its underlying Monte Carlo simulation models variability, making negative returns a distinct possibility that is factored into the simulation.
To understand the impact of a bear market or a series of poor returns on your financial plan, particularly on your "Chance of Success" and other outcomes, and develop strategies to ensure plan success under such conditions, we suggest the following:
Simulate a Bear Market
Create a new "Market Risk" scenario and simulate a "disbursement" from an account on a specific date to reflect a market loss. For example, to simulate a 30% drop in a $1,000,000 401(k):
Create a new scenario
Select Add a Disbursement
Enter the amount and select the affected account
When prompted, choose "Yes" for "Is this disbursement tax deductible?" (to avoid taxable income)
Add notes to describe the scenario and press Save
Simulate a Sequence of Poor Returns
Create a new "Market Risk" scenario:
Go to Accounts and Assets and set your current return to 0%
Add a Future Rate Change to increase returns after your chosen time period
Simulate a Recovery
To test a bounce-back period, add a Windfall under My Plan > Income for a later year. This models markets recovering after a downturn.
Compare Scenarios
Go to Scenario Manager and use the Scenario Comparison feature to compare the scenario under your Pessimistic, Average and Optimistic Assumptions as well as with your Baseline and other scenarios.
What are some historical “bad” markets I might want to model?
“Bad markets” can mean different things depending on context — you might be talking about sharp stock market declines, prolonged bear markets, or even economic environments that make investing particularly tough. Here are a few classic examples, grouped by type, so you can see the patterns:
Here are a few historical instances of:
📉 Sudden Crashes (Fast, Severe Drops)
COVID-19 Crash (2020): The S&P 500 fell −34% from February 19 to March 23, 2020. It recovered to its prior high in just 5 months, by mid-August 2020.
1990 Recession Bear: The S&P 500 declined about −20% from July 16 to October 11, 1990. It took roughly 6 months to return to its previous peak by early 1991.
"Black Monday" Crash (1987): The S&P 500 fell −33.5% from August 25 to December 4, 1987, including a −20.5% single-day drop on October 19. The market required 20 months to regain its prior peak, fully recovering by mid-1989.
1929 Crash (Great Depression): U.S. stock market lost ~90% of its value from peak to trough; triggered the longest economic downturn in modern history.
🐻 Prolonged Bear Markets (Slow, Grinding Declines)
Oil Crisis (1973-1974): Stocks lost ~48% over nearly two years amid inflation, recession, and an energy shock.
Dot-Com Bust (2000–2002): From its March 2000 high to the October 2002 low, the S&P 500 declined −49%, while the Nasdaq plunged nearly −78%. Even with a sharp rebound in 2003, it took the S&P 500 until 2007 to regain its prior peak.
Global Financial Crisis (2007–2009): The S&P 500 peaked in October 2007, gained about +5.5% for the year overall, then entered a severe bear market, ultimately falling −56.8% to its March 2009 low. A strong +26.5% rebound followed in 2009, but the index did not fully recover to its 2007 high until March 2013—leaving many retirees waiting years to restore their portfolios.
💸 Inflationary & Stagnant Markets (Low or Negative Real Returns)
1970s Stagflation: Inflation eroded returns; from 1966–1982, the Dow hovered around the same nominal level for 16 years, but in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, investors lost nearly 70% of their purchasing power.
Post-WWII Japan “Lost Decades” (1990–2010): The Nikkei 225 never recovered its 1989 peak; property and stock prices stagnated for decades.
Modeling bear markets and poor-return sequences helps you see how downturns might impact your Chance of Success and prepare strategies to keep your retirement plan resilient.