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Pessimistic Rates of Return
Pessimistic Rates of Return
Nancy Gates avatar
Written by Nancy Gates
Updated over 2 months ago

The Boldin software does not model any specific assets such as individual stocks, bonds, mutual funds, etfs, bonds or cash and you have the ability to model your asset allocation (which is the percentage of equities and fixed income you have in each account) by changing the optimistic and pessimistic Rates of Return.

A common approach is to use the historical return as a reference.

When entering your pessimistic rate of return You may want to you may want to utilize the following 10th percentile values from Portfolio Visualizer's Monte Carlo Simulation (considered the worst case scenario), as a guide.


No/Minimal International Stock Exposure In Your Portfolio

(Stocks represent U.S. Stock Market and Bonds represent Total U.S. Bond Market)

100% stocks: 5.99%

(data from January 1972 through August 2024)

80% stocks and 20% bonds: 6.23%

(remaining data with bond allocations from January 1987 through August 2024)

70% stocks and 30% bonds: 6.08%


60% stocks and 40% bonds: 5.91%


50% stocks and 50% bonds: 5.74%


40% stocks and 60% bonds: 5.54%


30% stocks and 70% bonds: 5.32%


20% stocks and 80% bonds: 4.87%


0% stocks and 100% bonds: 3.78%

International Stock Exposure In Your Portfolio

100% stocks: 5.62%
(80% U.S. Stock Market and 20% Global ex-US Stock Market)​

80% stocks and 20% bonds: 5.39%
(60% U.S. Stock Market, 20% Global ex-us Stock Market, 20% Total US Bond Market)​

70% stocks and 30% bonds: 5.31%
​(50% U.S. Stock Market, 20% Global ex-US Stock Market, 30% Total US Bond Market)

60% stocks and 40% bonds: 5.36%
(45% U.S. Stock Market, 15% Global ex-US Stock Market, 40% Total US Bond Market)​

50% stocks and 50% bonds: 5.22%
(35% U.S. Stock Market, 15% Global ex-US Stock Market, 50% Total US Bond Market)

40% stocks and 60% bonds: 5.21%
(30% U.S. Stock Market, 10% Global ex-US Stock Market, 60% Total US Bond Market)​

30% stocks and 70% bonds: 5.12%
(25% U.S. Stock Market, 5% Global ex-US Stock Market, 70% Total US Bond Market)

20% stocks and 80% bonds: 4.71%
(15% U.S. Stock Market, 5% Global ex-US Stock Market, 80% Total US Bond Market)

0% stocks and 100% bonds: 3.78%
(100% Total US Bond Market)

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