You log into your Boldin plan and see it: your Retirement Chance of Success, displayed as a percentage. Sure, it looks like a test score, but this number isn’t about passing or failing. It’s about planning for flexibility.
It’s a dynamic, nuanced look at your financial future. And whether you're years from retirement or already living it, understanding this score can help you make smarter, more confident decisions.
How Boldin Calculates Your Retirement Chance of Success
Your Retirement Chance of Success is calculated based on Boldin’s Monte Carlo analysis. Instead of showing just one possible outcome, Boldin runs 1,000 simulations. Each simulation represents a “what-if” scenario, with different randomly generated sequences of market returns - some strong, some weak, and everything in between.
Each of these 1,000 scenarios ends with a projected savings amount. If your plan ends with $0 or more, that counts as a “success”. So if 900 out of 1,000 simulations end with at least $0, your plan has a 90% chance of success. Whether you end up with $100 or $2 million at the end of your plan, it still counts as a success.
This analysis doesn’t try to predict the future. Instead, it helps you understand how likely your current plan is to hold up under a wide range of possible outcomes.
How To Think About Your Chance of Success
So what does “success” really mean in this context? If you have a 70% chance of success, does that mean there is a 30% chance of complete failure?
That’s not the case and that’s why this percentage shouldn’t be seen as a grade. A better way to think about it is as a probability of adjustment.
For example, a 60% score could be interpreted as a 40% probability of needing to make planning adjustments at some point in the future. That could mean cutting back on discretionary spending for a while, like scaling back travel, or skipping a cost-of-living increase during years when the market dips. If you’re open to that kind of flexibility, your plan can still be on track and you likely don’t need to make any immediate changes.
What Success Rate is Right for You? It Depends on Your Goals
Not everyone needs the same level of certainty in retirement. A 99% success rate might feel like a gold star, but it could also mean you're playing it too safe. To reach that level of certainty, you may be underspending or saving far more than you actually need, potentially at the expense of enjoying your retirement.
How you interpret your score should reflect your personal goals:
Are you focused on maximizing your spending during retirement?
Do you want to leave a legacy to children or other heirs?
Are a significant portion of your expenses discretionary (like travel) or mostly essential (like groceries and a mortgage)? Given this, how flexible are you in making spending adjustments to stay on track with your goals?
For example, someone with no dependents and no desire to leave an inheritance may feel just fine with a lower chance of success score (e.g. 65%). Someone who wants to leave a meaningful legacy might prefer more certainty and a higher score (e.g. 95%).
Flexibility Makes All the Difference
A lot of retirement plans assume linear spending (e.g. $8,000/month increasing at inflation over the next 30 years). In reality, most people adjust. You might travel less during market downturns or cut back on non-essential purchases. On the flip side, you may travel more during your early retirement years and scale back in your late 70s or early 80s.
One useful approach is to use Boldin’s Detailed Budgeter to separate your expenses into:
Must Spend: essentials like housing, food, and perhaps minimal travel
Like to Spend: extras like dining out more, extended travel, or gifts to family members
You might aim for an 85–90% success rate for your core needs (i.e. must spend), and feel perfectly comfortable with a lower rate, say 55-60%, for your discretionary spending goals (i.e. like to spend).
In other words, a 75% success rate for a flexible lifestyle might be safer than a 90% score for someone with no wiggle room. The key is knowing what’s included in your plan and how much of it you’re willing to adjust.
Revisit Your Plan Often
A single score doesn’t define the next several decades of your life. It’s a snapshot based on your current inputs and assumptions. That’s why regular check-ins matter.
Revisit your plan at least once a year, or when major life events happen, like:
A job change or retirement
A big purchase or sale
Marriage, divorce, or loss of a loved one
Changes in tax laws or income
Each review is a chance to make sure your plan still aligns with your evolving goals and circumstances. By checking in regularly, rather than every five years or so, you’re building the flexibility your Chance of Success score depends on.
Example: Meet John & Linda
John, 64, and Linda, 62, are recently retired, and running a plan with a 73% Retirement Chance of Success. At first, that number made them nervous as it didn’t feel “high enough.” But after revisiting their plan this year, they recognized a key assumption in their plan:
They were using the Basic Budgeter and assuming $10,000/month in spending throughout their lifetime, with inflation.
It had been a while since they had revisited their spending, and they had read that retirement spending may not look as linear as they had set in their plan.
With that in mind, John and Linda started taking action:
They did a deep dive into their spending using Boldin’s Detailed Budgeter and created two separate budgets: a must spend vs. a like to spend.
They realized discretionary spending, like extra travel and dining out, made up a large percentage of their budget. Their must spend budget resulted in a 99% chance of success, so they knew they had a lot of flexibility in their plan.
Currently, they are assuming all of their spending will last throughout their lifetime. They realized they can lower spending expectations in later retirement years if needed, given their large discretionary expenses.
They committed to reviewing their plan every 6–12 months, especially after major market shifts.
The result? John and Linda felt comfortable keeping their current spending plan because they knew where they could flex if needed. That 73% success rate became a planning tool opportunity, not a warning sign.
Final Thoughts
Your Chance of Success isn’t a prediction, but rather a tool for decision-making. Think of it as an invitation to reflect on your goals, assumptions, and flexibility in your planning.
Ask yourself:
Are my assumptions too optimistic or too conservative?
Have I considered essential expenses (e.g. utilities) separate from discretionary ones (e.g. annual travel)?
Am I open to adjusting if things don’t go exactly as planned?
The goal isn’t perfection, it’s balance. Good financial planning supports the life you want to live, while staying adaptable as life changes.